12 (BNA Domicile, Scott Plyler, Dan O'Connor, Meagan Nelan)

Today's SWAPA Number is 12. That's how many domiciles Southwest will have once we open Nashville in May of this year. So on today's show, we're going to talk with SRC chair Scott Plyler and SRC member Dan O'Connor about what that means for our pilots and our network. Amy's out sick today so joining me as host is the third member of SRC 3, Meagan Nelan.

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Transcript

Kurt Heidemann:

Today's SWAPA Number is 12. That's how many domiciles Southwest will have once we open Nashville in May of this year. So on today's show, we're going to talk with SRC chair Scott Plyler and SRC member Dan O'Connor about what that means for our pilots and our network. Amy's out sick today so joining me as host is the third member of SRC 3, Meagan Nelan.

Meagan Nelan:

I'm Meagan Nelan.

Kurt Heidemann:

And I'm Kurt Heidemann. And here's our interview with Scott and Dan.

Scott, let's start with you and explain why Nashville and why now.

Scott Plyler:

One of the biggest reasons is Nashville has the most overnighting aircraft of any non-domicile right now. So that means that we have a lot of potential to have a crew base to support pairings and we also have a lot of pilots that live there and it definitely goes to support the network. I know they've talked about the backbone of our network and that includes Nashville, is one of the ones that is not a crew base. And when you're looking at doing network recovery and just executing a schedule, you need to have crews and bodies in place in the middle of the network along that backbone. So since we have a lot of pilots that actually do live there, it's a desired place to live, that seems to be a really good place to get started with another base.

Dan O'Connor:

And they also look at other things or other departments also look at, besides crew planning, such as network planning and they even look at things like space at the airport, how much space is there to accommodate things like crew lounges, that sort of thing.

Meagan Nelan:

Okay. So we know that it's opening in May, right? But how big are they going to open it initially and then what's that projection for how it's going to grow?

Dan O'Connor:

Actually, we just got an initial projection from crew planning. It looks like opening in May. They're going to be starting with approximately 200 FOs and 225 captains so total of about 425, which is actually just a little bit bigger than we had originally heard it was planned. And then they expect to grow to about 680 pilots. Initially, they're going to do that by the end of the year, but it looks like they're going to speed that up a little bit and it's going to grow to that number, looking at about fall of 2024. It's about four or five big periods. Just to look at that, how it is relative to other bases that have opened, it took Denver three and a half years to grow to that size and LA, after five years, still it isn't as big as that. So it's going to happen pretty quickly.

Scott Plyler:

And it's happening pretty quickly also because the hiring plan got changed. So we still have new hires coming through the system and they'll be hitting the vacancies all the way up and through July. So they're trying to do the growth a little bit faster, that way they can limit the of displacements because we still have some positive growth of the pilot force coming in into the system.

Kurt Heidemann:

Scott, that brings up, for pilots who haven't been here for a new base opening, explain what generally happens or how they try and man it. Will there be a lot of displacements? Where will the manning come from?

Scott Plyler:

Crew planning really does try to limit the displacements. I know we've had some in the past with LA but with Nashville, there's a lot more interest in pilots actually wanting to go there and wanting to actually be based in Nashville. It's been probably our biggest request that we get on SRC for several years now. So they're going to pull from multiple different bases but they run a lot of vacancy tests just to see, "Oh, if we took a hundred out of Baltimore and a hundred out of Chicago and 50 out of Dallas and Houston, how would that vacancy run look?" And then they tweak the numbers from there. So even with one of the projections we got today, it showed one displacement out of Baltimore but they're going to continue tweaking that so they don't have any displacements by using the current vacancy bids when they finally do the final numbers.

So not only is it important for you to have your vacancy bids up-t- date with what you actually want for the vacancy projection so everybody can really see what that is, it's also important for crew planning because they use your vacancy bids as they're planning to avoid displacements.

Dan O'Connor:

And Kurt, you were asking where does the manning come from. As you would expect, looking at the initial vacancy run, it looks like quite a bit from the east coast more than the west coast. On the captain's side, it looks like quite a few for Midway Atlanta and Baltimore. And the FO side, Midway Houston and Denver. And plenty has said that Midway in Houston will be the domiciles with the largest drawdowns.

Meagan Nelan:

So that creates a follow on question. I know that you may have talked about this offline, Dan, but what does that impact to seniority, not just for Nashville, but maybe also some of the domiciles that they're pulling from?

Dan O'Connor:

Yeah, this question comes up quite a bit, Meagan. Those of us who have been here for a while know that when they open bases like Las Vegas and Denver, tends to pull more from the bottom of the seniority list. I know personally I could tell you when they opened those, I lost 5 to 10% of seniority immediately. Looking at the numbers today, since Nashville does have so many pilots that already live there and are interested in moving there, it's really drawing from more of an even spread throughout the seniority spectrum in the different bases. Just looking at today myself, I actually gained a little bit of seniority if I stay in Chicago from the pilots leaving to go to Nashville. So it is good news that they're opening with more positions because it does look like it's pretty desirable.

Kurt Heidemann:

And Dan, just for people that don't know, I think you're pretty much a mid-seniority captain. So you're just right about average, right in the middle. It's not doing too much to affect your seniority.

Dan O'Connor:

No, just looking at it this morning, actually my seniority doesn't drop as much as I expected actually, if I go to Nashville. Obviously these numbers will shift as more pilots go in and rearrange their vacancy bid. A little plug on that is obviously if more pilots go in and change these bids, we'll get more accurate projections and more accurate information than we could put out. And just a reminder that this vacancy bid for May closes March 21st so just in a few weeks, which is actually just a little bit earlier in the month than it has been in the past. So we do ask that pilots go in and change that vacancy bid to give us a more accurate projection. And we also have a tool you can use if you go on to the SWAPA.org website and under SRC tools, you can go there and look at the individual vacancy report which will tell you how many pilots senior to you are trying to get into the different domiciles. Obviously with Nashville, you'll get a good idea how many people senior to you to try to get in there.

Meagan Nelan:

So speaking of SRC tools, I know that our team put out a vacancy projection in the past. What kind of information will be pilot facing leading into that award?

Scott Plyler:

Crew planning has agreed to go ahead and put out a bunch of what-if vacancy projections leading up to this. More than normal. Usually we get one, maybe two. We're expecting to get one even before they open up the vacancy and then probably two or three during the vacancy itself. As part of the new contract, crew planning is actually putting out just the entire vacancy award and seniority lists that are being projected. And those are on SWALife. So you have to go down through all the menus on SWALife and you have to go my work, Flight Ops, my schedule, vacancy, and then you'll eventually find the vacancy projection. So just make sure you understand that that's where it's at and we don't actually put out anything on Swapa.org any longer. I think everybody's going to like seeing the entire vacancy projection as opposed to the product that we put out just based on our handshake agreement to not put everything out. But don't go making specific plans, don't go buy a house, changing jobs just because of what you see in the vacancy projection.

Certainly wait until you actually are awarded it before you sign the dotted line on any big life decisions.

Kurt Heidemann:

Meagan, I appreciate that you're sitting in for Amy today and sitting in her seat but you do a lot of the data runs so let me ask you this question real quick. What does the data show as far as the pilot presence in Nashville today? Can we already fill it with locals or do we have a lot of people that will be moving in? What does that show us?

Meagan Nelan:

Yeah, so looking at the initial projection that the Company's provided, we have a large population that already live in Nashville and from this initial award, it looks like over a hundred of those projected awards are already in that Nashville area. Almost 300 that are within that 250 mile range, which is a number that we're using in terms of a local pilot. And again, that's just the initial award. And we've looked at demographics before and I want to say there's closer to 400 that are within that Nashville area. So it's going to have a very healthy local market.

Kurt Heidemann:

Dan and Scott, even with those guys living there, that doesn't mean they're all going to be based there. Some guys do commute for quality of life or whatnot. Do we know what that looks like? Do we know what that seniority level is specifically? I know you mentioned it's available on the website but anything to add there?

Dan O'Connor:

Yeah, Kurt, of course. We don't know exactly how many people are going to choose to move to Nashville who don't live there already but obviously there's a lot of factors that go into where a pilot wants to be domiciled. Maybe they don't want to deal with the weather up in Chicago or maybe they are based in Atlanta but they will actually maybe get some better seniority up in Nashville after they look at it. Until we see amount of pilots, I guess, applying for paid moves to go into Nashville, it's hard to know exactly, but definitely Nashville, it does have a pretty robust flight schedule. So depending where your seniority is in other places, it might be better for you to change domiciles in there even if you don't plan on moving there.

Meagan Nelan:

So Dan, you made a comment about the robust flight schedule going into Nashville. What do we think this opening is going to do as far as the network goes, like your pairing quality, line quality?

Dan O'Connor:

We have gotten some initial runs, DPAS runs for pairings out of Nashville. We actually saw this happen with LA too. As they're growing it, we expect the average pairing length, in other words more turns in two days, be prevalent, especially in the first few bid periods, like I said, as they're building it up. So expect shorter pairings initially obviously. So that's an impact you're going to have in the planning phase. And obviously there's going to be significant effects on the execution recovery phase too. Having another domicile, especially centrally located in the country with more reserves sitting there, more recovery options out of Nashville, it will certainly help the network when it's distressed.

Scott Plyler:

That shorter pairings is not just specific to Nashville but to all domiciles. We should see it come down a little bit as there's less pressure on the number of flights going in and out of all the domiciles, you'll have less pilots to man those. So you can get in and out of those domiciles easier. But specific to Nashville, we won't have as many pilots compared to the overnighting aircraft. So there's a lot more choices for DPAS to build more pairings because every pairing has to start and end in Nashville. So when you give it more options of flights that are terminating and originating, it can certainly make a lot of the shorter pairings in Nashville and that translates across the entire system when you open up a base and we see that pretty much every time.

Kurt Heidemann:

So just as a thought experiment, if opening Nashville is beneficial to lowering average pairing length and making it more optimal, why wouldn't the Company open up 5 bases or 10 bases? Is every base additive to the efficiency? And if so, then why wouldn't we open up all cities basically?

Scott Plyler:

The SWAPA scheduling committee has been advocating for more domiciles, gosh, for at least the two decades that I've been around. It does help to have more pilots driving to work. We've seen the data that they tend to work an extra day. It's easier for you obviously to sit reserved, better quality of life. It's easier for to commute if there's more choices of where you actually commute to. And it does help with the pairing mix that we can create more of the pairing or the Company can create more of the pairings that pilots want, whether it's turns or two days, which it definitely does that. But you can also create more commutable opportunities if you have more places that start and end the pairings.

Dan O'Connor:

Just think of how many more recovery options there would've been for a storm like Elliott. When you have Denver and Chicago shut down, like Scott said, you don't have these pilots that are having to use the commuter policy or call in sick because they can't get to work. So just more domiciles helps the network over overall.

Kurt Heidemann:

So what keeps the Company from opening them, do you know? Have you spoken to them? What's their resistance?

Scott Plyler:

Part of it is just the physical facilities. There was some concern they weren't actually going to be able to do that with Nashville, to be able to get them done in time. And then it costs money to open it up, whether it's the pilot or the in-flight to have physical facilities. And now that we're going to EFBs and a lot of pilots don't actually even go to the pilot lounge anymore, there's a lot less requirement for that. And we've tried to negotiate that, "Hey, we don't really need all the physical facilities as much," but the Company still feels that they have a need for that and that does cost money to man and also have the physical space.

Meagan Nelan:

Didn't we hear in a meeting at one point how many millions of dollars it is to open a base? Do you remember what that was?

Dan O'Connor:

I don't remember the exact cost but you add up adding chief pilots and crew coordinators and the facilities. Like Scott said, it's mostly a cost issue.

Scott Plyler:

There is also the cost of paid moves to pay for pilots to move to the domicile as well. So that factors into it as well.

Kurt Heidemann:

And then I would also say that with the requirements for domicile specific pairing mixes, if you get too thin, then wouldn't that dilute the pairings to where they might have trouble giving that across too many different domiciles?

Dan O'Connor:

Like Scott said before, there'll be APL and pairing mix advantages by opening Nashville and opening more domiciles. Crew planning's told us in the past that when a domicile is overmanned, it leads to more... Four days, more longer pairings because they have to simplify this. They have to move the pilots out of the domicile and do flying from other stations because they don't have enough in their domicile, if that makes sense.

Meagan Nelan:

That's been a problem with Baltimore, right? For a long time.

Dan O'Connor:

Yes. That's why Baltimore, some of these bases, we're seeing a lot of four days. We get a lot of feedback on that. So opening these domiciles, like Scott referred to, will help across the system.

Meagan Nelan:

So we were talking about paid moves and I believe there's language about newly established domiciles and then what that entails, how long you have to qualify for a move. Could you all just expand on what the provisions are?

Dan O'Connor:

When a domicile opens, you have 12 bid periods from the opening to be awarded a vacancy, in this case Nashville, and then qualify for a paid move. You then have 24 months from that award to initiate your move. There are some other provisions which LA has actually just triggered, where if it grows more than 7% in one bid period or 15% over three bid periods, it triggers that newly established domicile language. We don't know for sure that's going to happen for Nashville. It could. Like I said, they're planning pretty aggressive growth in the first four months so it could happen where in June or July, they trigger that language again and reestablishes that 12 months.

Kurt Heidemann:

And just for those listeners that are just hearing this, when they triggered that, when did they trigger LA? So paid moves are now available for LA, is that true? And for how long?

Meagan Nelan:

From what I recall, they grew in February and March, which then established that 12 month. So it would be through February of next year, I believe, where you could potentially get a paid move.

Kurt Heidemann:

To both LA or Nashville at this time.

Meagan Nelan:

Right.

Kurt Heidemann:

So nice to have choices. Good. So Dan, if a pilot does get a paid move, since we're talking about it, what are some of the benefits that we've gotten in the new contract? Can you cover some of those?

Dan O'Connor:

We'll just hit on some of the highlights here. You can go into the leave section and the expenses section that goes into a little more detail. But you do get travel benefits, travel days, moving leave. And if it's an approved paid move, then it'll be paid moving leave. There's a new provision now, you can get up to $1,200 if you sell your property where you're moving from and as a result of this paid move. And there's also a similar benefit, if you have to break a lease, I believe it's still up to $1,200 you need to break a lease, paid move, you can move up to 25,000 pounds. Again, we won't get into the details, but it includes packing, unpacking, insurance, and even up to 60 days of storage. You also can receive up to five positive space tickets for either house hunting or as part of the move for every eligible family member.

Meagan Nelan:

All right, so we've already established that it's a pretty aggressive plan as far as the initial opening and then that growth plan. At what point do we think that we might see displacements and what are the displacement provisions under the new contract?

Scott Plyler:

We could see some displacements, maybe not into Nashville, but just as they're tweaking the other bases, shrinking them down in order to fund the growth of Nashville, so to speak. And we might see those later into the summer, right at the end of the growth of Nashville. If those happen, we actually have some much better provisions for displacements and reimbursements in the new contract. So you get three months of Company reimbursements for hotel accommodations, that would be one night preparing on your bid line. But the big improvement there is that if you're actually being displaced and sitting reserve, you get a hotel room for every wrap, not reserve block, but every wrap on your original line. So if you're junior, you're probably the ones being displaced because you're junior, so you may be being displaced and sitting reserve as well. So that's a huge improvement there and that's a three months worth of expenses. You can also do three months worth of crash pad expenses as well. You would also trigger a paid move if you actually do want to move to that domicile after you got displaced into it.

Kurt Heidemann:

Scott, one thing to add real quick before we move on from those displacement rights, just a public service announcement for our listeners. A pilot gets either the temporary living expenses or a paid move. You don't get both. So if you're going to do one, don't do the other and lose the rights to the other. Just a little footstomper there.

Dan O'Connor:

Actually, another footstomper. If you do take the paid move, you also lose your domicile right of return rates.

Kurt Heidemann:

That's fair too. So looking ahead, where do we think the next domicile will be and when?

Scott Plyler:

There's definitely been talk of several other stations. This one came down to between Nashville and St. Louis and they chose Nashville, obviously. St. Louis is also listed as one of the cities that are part of the backbone of the network that network planning refers to and also for recovery. So St. Louis would be one of the ones high on the list for the next time. But there's also a couple others that do make sense, whether it's Austin or Sacramento or Tampa. Those are because pilots live there. There's a lot of overnighting aircraft. Some of that comes down to facilities, weather. Do you want to have two stations that could be impacted adversely by a hurricane? And then also some of the politics and the costs. California, opening up another domicile out in California might be problematic for that as well. So we highly suspect that it would probably be another Midwest domicile like St. Louis or possibly Kansas City, depending on what the growth of the network is over the next year or so.

Kurt Heidemann:

So you don't think that by opening Nashville, that excludes St. Louis because they're relatively close together, that wouldn't eliminate that as a possibility?

Scott Plyler:

From our talks, I don't think it would eliminate the possibility simply because they do have a lot of space available there, the network can create some additional activity in St. Louis, pulling some of the network or the connections out of Chicago, which gets impacted really heavily. And then they could make the network connections like for passenger itineraries out of Nashville or St. Louis and just makes a little more sense to spread out and that'll help mitigate some of the damage when you have a winter storm or something.

Kurt Heidemann:

Do you think that as they open up the co-terminal up in O'Hare that will relieve some of that pressure on Midway and they won't need that Midwest base or do you think it's just another way of offloading some of that without impacting that choice?

Scott Plyler:

With the O'Hare or even DFW or Intercontinental down in Houston, those aren't very large. They wouldn't even open up as large. They're not big operations now. They don't anticipate them being a very large operation. So you don't have as much connectivity as you would have in some of these other cities that have a lot of originators and terminators.

Dan O'Connor:

I'd add a little to that, also to what Scott said, Kurt, as far as Chicago O'Hare, Intercontinental, DFW, those are really situations where Southwest maxed out their capacity at those stations like Midway and Hobby and Love. So that gives them more expandability into the same city but they're not opening O'Hare or expanding O'Hare, making a co-terminal because of weather, obviously, because all those... If a city's going to be impacted, it's going to be impacted. So I don't think you can really tie those two together.

Meagan Nelan:

So just to close everything out, I know we said it's opening in May. Could y'all just give a quick recap of what the next steps are, any important dates, and then just any reminders in preparation of Nashville?

Dan O'Connor:

Okay. So again, Nashville will be opening for the May bid period. We'll get the final vacancy numbers on March 15th, and then it will close on March 21st. So if you haven't done it already, we suggest going into CWA or CrewView, go into bid input, vacancy and go ahead and put Nashville in your vacancy list and submit that. If you do want to move there and would like to apply for a paid move, the Company has put out information on that. You can go into CWA and apply for a paid move and the Company will be putting out more information on moves shortly.

Scott Plyler:

And don't think that just because it's a Nashville opening that only if you're interested in Nashville, you should update your vacancy bid. Certainly they're going to be drawing down the numbers. There'll be negative vacancies in Chicago and Baltimore but if more pilots leave there to go to Nashville, it opens up secondary positive vacancy. So you can still get into Chicago and Baltimore and other places, even if it shows a negative vacancy, if more pilots are moving out. So it's important that everybody, not just the folks interested in Nashville, but everybody update their vacancy bid so you have a more accurate idea of where you're going to wind up.

Dan O'Connor:

That's a great point. And if you need more information on how to put in a vacancy bid or what a primary or secondary displacement is, plug for the scheduling handbook. All this information is in there. It's a great reference.

Meagan Nelan:

Thank you to Scott and Dan for coming on the podcast to talk to us about the opening of this new base and what it means for our pilots.

Kurt Heidemann:

If you have any feedback for us at all, please drop us a line at comm@SWAPA.org.

Meagan Nelan:

And finally, today's bonus Number is 425. That's how many pilots are projected to be awarded Nashville at its opening. As Scott and Dan said, be sure to update your vacancy bid so everyone can have the best projection prior to that close.